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Even if the risk is 16x higher for smokers, thats not enough to conclude that the entire difference, or any of it, is caused by smoking

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In the long run, yes

In the only study to date examining the role of pre-extinction stress on appetitive memories in a clinical population, administration of cortisol before exposure to alcohol cues decreased within-session cravings in those with a severe alcohol use disorder but increased cravings in those with less severe symptoms [63]

I cant help but think what would have happened if executive producers Michael Mann and Anthony Yerkovich had been able to work a deal where they produced the show for HBO instead of NBC